Retail Media Spend Is Exploding. Trust in the Numbers Isn't.
Retail media has become a profit center.
Not a channel. A profit center for the retailer running it. That shift changes the conversation in ways most brands haven’t realized yet. US advertisers spent $60.32 billion on retail media in 2025 and will spend $71.09 billion in 2026, and yet only 15% of advertisers report strong confidence in their retail media measurement. Nearly half admit they are outright struggling with it. Brands are pouring more money into a channel every year while trusting the results less, and that gap is exactly where I spend a lot of my time with clients.
Whose Goal Is the Program Actually Serving
When a retail media network is owned by the retailer itself, rather than a neutral third-party platform, there is a built-in interest on their side that does not automatically translate into results for the brand. A recommendation gets made, or a program gets requested, and it is worth asking honestly whether that program exists because it will work for you, or because it serves a goal the retailer has tied to that program on their end. This isn’t a new thing. It used to be golf tournaments or charity events; now it’s retail media spend. That is simply how a profit center behaves. It does mean a brand has to bring its own read on the business to every one of those conversations instead of taking the recommendation at face value.
When It Didn't Work the First Time
I have gone back to retailers more than once and said, plainly, we tried that before and it did not work for us. The version of that conversation that actually gets somewhere is never the flat no. It is the "but" or the "and." We tried that, and it did not work, but here is what did work for us, here is what we know drives velocity, grows the basket, or gets more items into the cart on our side of this business. Coming back with an alternative, instead of just a no, is what turns that conversation into a program instead of a standoff.
The Question Almost Nobody Asks
Before signing on to a program, or pushing back on one, ask what the actual goal of it is. Why this program, on this desk, in this category, right now? What does success look like if we run it? A lot of these conversations should run on a simple if-then: if we do this, we get this, and if we do this and do not see that result, here is what we’ll try next. I also want to know upfront how much time we have to show results the retailer or merchant is expecting. Going in without those answers means finding out later whether the whole thing was a growth lever or just a box that needed checking.
A Recent Example
I was recently in a conversation with a retailer about their own retail media program. If they manage it for you, the minimum spend is $25,000, non-negotiable, and required for new item launches or new brands entering distribution. But you can also manage the program yourself, with no minimum spend attached. The person running the program on their side was candid: their managed programs run largely on autopilot, while self-managed programs tend to see a higher return, because there is someone dedicated to optimizing the campaign as it runs instead of it sitting in a queue with everyone else's. The dollars did not make sense for this particular brand at this particular time. But the conversation was still a win, because we learned it was never an all-or-nothing decision. There were other ways to show the retailer we were supporting distribution without signing over budget to a platform running on autopilot.
What This Means for Your Budget
The growth in retail media spend is not slowing down, and for a lot of categories it is becoming close to mandatory just to stay in good standing with a retailer. That is exactly why the confidence gap in measurement matters so much right now. A brand allocating a budget behind a medium it cannot fully trust the numbers on is like flying without the instrument panel most executives assume they already have. Ask who owns the platform, ask what the goal actually is, and ask what happens if the results do not show up. Those three questions will tell you more than most retail media pitch decks will.
Where in your retail media budget are you spending on autopilot instead of asking what it's actually buying you?
PS. Twenty-plus years of defending trade spend and margin across brands like Borden and Mission Foods taught me to ask what a program is actually intended to do before I ever ask what it costs, especially when it comes to emerging and scaling brands. When every dollar counts, let’s talk about how to navigate the discussion.